Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that the Asia Pacific Semiconductor Chip Sales leading indicator went up in December by 3.4 percent to a reading of 341.1, after increasing  5.1 percent in November.  The index was set to average 100 in 2000.

The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for North America, Japan and Europe, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for semiconductor sales.            

The six-month growth rate is commonly used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor.  The semiconductor leading indicator’s six month growth rate went up 122.1 percent in December 2009, after going up 134 percent in November.  Consecutive positive values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic recession and the beginning of an upcoming expansion.

“The Asia Pacific region’s semiconductor leading indicator has gone up ten consecutive months.  The six-month growth rate, a good indicator of upcoming expansion or recession, remains at high levels but growth this month pulled back from November's extremely high six-month growth rate of 134 percent.  This may be the first indication that growth will continue, but the pace will slow," noted Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.

Five of the six components that make up the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the Asia Pacific market improved in December: Asia Pacific Demand Prospects, 10-Country Leading Index*; Monetary Conditions, US Yield Curve; North America Demand Outlook, NAFTA Composite Leading Index; EU (Germany, UK & France) Demand Outlook, Composite Leading Index and Japanese Demand Outlook, Leading Diffusion Index.  The only component that had a negative contribution to the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the Asia Pacific market was: New Orders for Computers & Electronics, US Manufacturers.                         

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces company and industry-specific leading indicators for its clients.  In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc., e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around the world.